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UID:submissions.pasc-conference.org_PASC22_sess124_msa136@linklings.com
SUMMARY:FaIR: A Reduced-Complexity Climate Model for Scenario Evaluation a
 nd Integrated Assessment
DESCRIPTION:Minisymposium\n\nFaIR: A Reduced-Complexity Climate Model for 
 Scenario Evaluation and Integrated Assessment\n\nSmith, Leach, Jenkins\n\n
 The FaIR (Finite-amplitude Impulse Response) model is an open-source reduc
 ed complexity<br />climate model “emulator” that produces simulations of g
 lobal mean temperature and ocean<br />heat content change from emissions, 
 greenhouse gas concentrations, or radiative forcing. It<br />contains simp
 lified relationships for the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry that<b
 r />simulate the global response of full complexity Earth System models an
 d is calibrated to<br />reproduce their behavior.<br />Using these calibra
 tions, combined with standard uncertainty assessments provided by the<br /
 >IPCC, probabilistic distributions can be drawn for parameters representin
 g each<br />phenomenon in the Earth system. As FaIR is a very lightweight 
 model (100+ ensemble<br />members per second on a standard modern computer
  are achievable), probabilistic climate<br />projections can be produced f
 rom emissions incredibly efficiently that span the full range of<br />unce
 rtainty. The resulting ensemble can be constrained to retain projections t
 hat are<br />consistent with observations or expert assessment of climate.
 <br />Applications of FaIR include providing climate projections to integr
 ated assessment model<br />derived emissions pathways, determining the soc
 ial cost of carbon and other greenhouse<br />gases, and providing responsi
 ve climate projections for policy. Future applications seek to<br />develo
 p closer integration with integrated assessment and economic models and fe
 edback<br />climate information into decision processes in these models.\n
 \nDomain: Climate, Weather and Earth Sciences, Humanities and Social Scien
 ces
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