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DTSTAMP:20220812T074335Z
LOCATION:Sydney Room
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Stockholm:20220629T123000
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UID:submissions.pasc-conference.org_PASC22_sess124_msa138@linklings.com
SUMMARY:Estimating Global Impacts to Agriculture from Climate Change Accou
 nting for Adaptation
DESCRIPTION:Minisymposium\n\nEstimating Global Impacts to Agriculture from
  Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation\n\nHultgren, Carleton, Delgado, 
 Greenstone, Hsiang...\n\nClimate change threatens global food systems, but
  the extent to which adaptation will reduce losses remains unknown. Here, 
 we empirically estimate the net impact of producer adaptations around the 
 world using longitudinal data on six staple crops spanning 12,658 sub-nati
 onal units, capturing two- thirds of global crop calories. We project that
  adaptation and income growth nearly halve global losses at end-of-century
 , but substantial residual losses remain for all staples except rice. Glob
 al damages are dominated by losses to modern-day breadbaskets that current
 ly exhibit limited adaptation due to favorable climates. We estimate globa
 l production declines 5.8x10^14kCal annually per 1C rise in global mean su
 rface temperature (4.6% of current production or 130kCal/person/day, per 1
 C; p< 0:001). These results suggest a scale of innovation, cropland expans
 ion and/or additional adaptation that might be necessary to ensure global 
 food security in a changing climate.\n\nDomain: Climate, Weather and Earth
  Sciences, Humanities and Social Sciences
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